Here’s an article on Jordan Love and his standout Average Depth of Target (ADoT) entering the 2025 NFL season — what it means, what the numbers show, and how it reflects the Packers’ offense so far.
Jordan Love Leads the NFL in Average Depth of Target (ADoT)
In the early stretch of the 2025 NFL season, Jordan Love has been quietly making waves. One of the most talked-about stats: his Average Depth of Target, which sits among the league’s highest. Some sources say Love is averaging around 12.9 yards per target — a number that reflects a shift in how Green Bay is attacking through the air. (mparkhill.substack.com)
Here’s a breakdown of what that means, how it’s playing out, and what to watch going forward.
What is Average Depth of Target?
“Average Depth of Target” or ADoT measures how far downfield a quarterback typically throws the ball. It includes all targets (completions + incompletions) and gives a sense of how aggressive or conservative a passing offense is. A higher ADoT means more passes are being launched deeper — more vertical routes, more risk, and more potential for big plays (but also more chances for mistakes).
What the Numbers Are Saying
- Several outlets, including analysts from Substack and NFL‐stat trackers, have noted Love’s ADoT has been around 12.9 yards this season. This puts him among the very top quarterbacks in terms of how aggressively his offense is pushing the ball downfield. (mparkhill.substack.com)
- Other reports have him leading the league or very near the lead in air yards per attempt and deep throw percentage, reinforcing the ADoT stat. (Acme Packing Company)
- In specific games, such as Green Bay vs. Washington, Love’s ADoT has climbed even higher (14.5 yards in some reports), showing that the Packers are not just occasionally attempting deep passes — they are committing to them in their game plan. (Acme Packing Company)
Why It Matters
This isn’t just a flashy number. The high ADoT suggests a few strategic shifts and implications:
- Aggressive Pass Strategy
Green Bay is clearly more willing to take shots. Whether that’s because defenses are stacking the box against their run game or Love is trusted more to make those downfield throws, the offense is leaner on risk-reward. - Mismatch Exploitation
Deep passes force defenses to cover vertically — putting pressure on safeties and cornerbacks in one-on-one situations. If Green Bay’s receiving corps and offensive line can hold up, this opens up play-action, intermediate throws, and creates more space overall. - Volatility Risk
A high ADoT comes with trade-offs. Deep passes are harder to complete, more likely to be disrupted or intercepted, and less consistent than shorter throws. So Love and his receivers have to be sharp. Mistiming or misreading coverage can lead to big negative plays. - Indicator of Offensive Identity
Using a higher depth of target is often a sign that a team is confident in its vertical threats — whether via speed receivers, tight ends getting downfield, or a new emphasis in scheme. It also suggests trust in the QB’s arm strength, decision-making, and ability to handle tighter windows.
How Love & the Packers Are Executing It
Some ways the Packers are putting this into practice:
- Mix in deep shots with play action and rollouts, which can freeze safeties or pull defenders away, creating one-on-one opportunities. (Acme Packing Company)
- When defenses commit extra players to stopping the run or blitz, Love is getting chances to hit deep routes to outside receivers or seam routes with tight ends. (Acme Packing Company)
- Early game performance shows high ADOT isn’t hurting efficiency too badly — Love has connected on big plays and kept passing numbers respectable. Completing 20+ yard passes, spread among multiple receivers, has helped balance the risk. (RotoWire)
What to Watch Moving Forward
If Love is going to maintain or build on his high ADoT, these are the things worth paying attention to:
- Completion Percentage on Deep Throws: Are those high ADOT attempts turning into successful plays, or are more being dropped, broken up, or intercepted?
- Injury & Receiver Mix: Green Bay needs reliable targets who can win downfield, stretch defenses, and finish contested catches. Losses or injuries at WR/TE could affect how often deep attempts are viable.
- Game Situation & Opponent Strategy: Teams that play a lot of zone or concede deep shots will likely suffer more. Versus man coverage, the deep ball can work well; versus disciplined deep zone or bracket coverage, it becomes riskier.
- Sustainability: Over a full season, defenses will adjust. Packers might need to balance deep attempts with more intermediate and quick throws to avoid becoming predictable or from Love facing too many heaves with tight windows.
Conclusion
Jordan Love leading the league (or very near it) in Average Depth of Target is more than a stat — it’s a signal that Green Bay’s offense is embracing its vertical potential. Love is being asked to push the ball downfield more often than ever, and early returns suggest both opportunity and risk.
If this trend continues, Love could turn into one of the most exciting deep-throw QBs in the league. But maintaining balance — executing the deep game when needed, avoiding costly mistakes, and keeping defenses honest — will be key to whether this becomes a defining strength or exposes vulnerabilities.
If you like, I can pull up comparative ADoT stats for Love vs. other top QBs (Mahomes, Jackson, Hurts, etc.) to give you context how high “high” really is.
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